A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
